We need to protect our planet and fight climate change. Or else deal with consequences. One of the consequences that have started to show up in different parts of the world is the occurrence of heatwaves. Countries like India and Pakistan are dealing with it right now, and the situation might worsen with time if strong actions to stop climate change are not taken.
The Study
According to a Met Office study, climate
change is making record-breaking heatwaves in northwest India and Pakistan 100
times more likely. Due to climate change, the said region can expect a heatwave
that exceeds the record temperatures seen in 2010 once every three years. The
Met Office also said that if climate change wasn't happening, such extreme
temperatures would have occurred once in 312 years.
The Soaring Temperatures
This report comes at a time when
forecasters are predicting that temperatures in North-West India could reach
new highs in the next few days. Delhi,
the capital of India, is already suffering at 49C as the heatwave has swept
India. The poor people of the country are bearing the brunt of blistering
heatwaves.
Though the pre-monsoon heatwave in the
region eased a bit after peak temperatures reached 51C on Saturday in Pakistan,
the heat will likely build again towards the end of this week, and the next,
said the Met
Office's Global Guidance Unit.
It also warned that maximum temperatures might
reach 50C in some spots and very high overnight temperatures are also likely to
continue.
Expert Opinion
Dr. Nikos Christidis, who led the team
responsible for the study, stated, "Spells of heat have always been a
feature of the region's pre-monsoon climate during April and May. However, our
study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells
making record-breaking temperatures 100 times more likely."
The Aim
This new study is based on the heatwaves
that occurred in Northwest India and Pakistan in April and May 2010. At that
time, the region experienced the highest combined April and May average
temperature since 1900. The study aimed at estimating the extent to which
climate change made that and future events more likely.
The Comparison
The attribution study involved running
computer simulations comparing how frequently a weather event is likely to
occur in two scenarios. The first models the climate as it is today, while the
second t a climate where the human influence on greenhouse gases and several other
drivers of climate change has been removed.
These scenarios are run through 14
different computer models. They produce dozens of different simulations that are
compared to work out how climate change has altered the probability of an event
happening.
The study wanted to assess the impact of
future climate change. The Met Office has warned that worse is to come. The
study highlighted that if climate change follows the Met Office's central
predictions, India and Pakistan can expect similarly high temperatures
virtually every year by the end of the century.
Sources:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-swells-odds-record-233820207.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61484697